There have been rumors flying around that Theresa May plans to call an early election. Her timing couldn't be better. The Labour Party is divided, the only real opposition are the SNP, the Government are miles ahead in the polls and, most importantly, they are implementing what the majority of the electorate (who voted) want: exit from the EU. However, despite the remarkable circumstances the Government find themselves in, I don't believe there will be an election until the end of the Parliament: May 2020.
The means of triggering an early election are complex and embarrassing. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act, forcing all Parliament to last the full 5 years, only allows an early general election to be called in 2 ways. The first requires the House of Commons to express a vote of 'no confidence in her Majesty's Government.' Of course, opposition parties would support this motion, but given the Government has a majority, some Conservative MPs would have to vote against their own party in Government. The second method is two thirds of all MPs voting for an early election, requiring over 100 Tory MPs to vote for this. Both of these situations could be an awkward part of an election campaign, with voters expressing confusing as to why Government MPs didn't have faith in the Government. The Government looks set to trigger Article 50 in less than a month. Unless timings for EU negotiations are dramatically altered, having an election when negotiations begin seems unwise. Throughout an election campaign, there would be questioning as to why the dates for triggering Article 50 were changed, was an early election really necessary and why Theresa May had changed her mind, previously promising not to call an election. These concerns could alter the polls and, ultimately, the final result. Calling an early election could be seen as political opportunism, simply because the opposition is weak and the process of Brexit would be far easier with a 100 seat majority. The Tories could therefore be seen as complacent Government, presuming a victory - a large victory. Such clear complacency would not go down well with the electorate, potentially reducing Mrs May's already small majority. A short term advantage could turn into a long term issue, if exploited. Though division in the Tory party seems non-existent, the division over a number of issues is still there. Many Tory remainers will not be satisfied about the Government's Brexit plans or other issues from breaking an election promise not to raise National Insurance to the expansion of Grammar schools. At an election, this divisions would come clear, leading to a mixed messages on policies from different candidates. The process of Brexit and other issues should remain the Government's priority, rather than political point scoring over the opposition. In conclusion, I don't believe there will be a UK election anytime soon. Then again, given the current political climate, predictions very rarely turn out to be correct.
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