Note: this blog was written before polling day on 21st May 2022.
In the UK this week, the date for two forthcoming by-elections - in Wakefield and Tiverton and Hontion - was announced a 23rd June. Set to take place exactly six years after the Brexit referendum, the date is a notable, eerie timing for when political upsets take place. Indeed, given the sheer volume of political pandemonium inside the British Isles, it’s easy to forget about the numerous political events occurring across the globe: including Down Under. Yes, that’s right, this Saturday, Australians go to the polls for their federal elections. Taking place every three years, this year’s federal election was called for 21st May. Around 17 million people are eligible to vote in the election, where turnout is compulsory. All 151 members of the House of Representatives, the lower House of the Australian Parliament, are up for the election. This is where the government is formed, requiring a party to win 76 seats to have the confidence of forming a majority government. The Senate meanwhile, containing 76 seats, has half of its candidates up for election every three years, with the upper House having significant powers to block bills and scrutinise legislation in depth. Currently, Prime Minister Scott Morrison, the leader of the Australian Liberal Party and leader of the Liberal-National Coalition, governs with 74 seats. Meanwhile, the main opposition party - the Australian Labor Party - are led by Anthony Albanese and enter the election with 69 seats. With only seven extra seats needed for Labor to win a majority, or taking just four from the Liberal-National coalition, there really is everything to play for. The last election in which Labor formed the government was 2010, where Julia Gillard, who would remain Labor Prime Minister, and Tony Abbot (who became Prime Minister in 2013) both won 72 seats. This led to a hung parliament, where the smaller parties became even more relevant. Currently, Labor are defending 13 seats on a margin of 3%, meaning a guaranteed victory, despite nearly a decade in opposition, is not an inevitability. The electoral system for the House of Representatives is far more proportional compared to first-past-the-post in the UK. Voters rank their candidates in order of preference, having to fill in their entire ballot paper for the vote to count. If no candidate gets above 50% of first preferences, the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated and their preferences are redistributed. This has led parties to tactically order what order their supporters should rank candidates in. In 2019, for example, the Liberal Coalition and Labor Party received 74.78% of first preference votes. Strategically, Labor need to win seats across the country, including Queensland, requiring a targeted approach to different voters. The campaign, which began in the middle of April has been dominated by how both parties would respond to the Covid-19 pandemic. Australia was largely able to contain the virus by sealing its borders and operating sharp localised lockdowns, though Scott Morrison has been criticised for the speed of the vaccine rollout. The government has therefore tried to base its campaign about economic protection and security, a theme conservative parties often deployed at elections. By contrast, Albanese’s Labor Party are framing their campaigning around caring for different institutions and communities. Albanese himself briefly served as Deputy Prime Minister during Kevin Rudd’s second term of office, so is no novice to the hard-hitting nature of Australian politics. The party’s previous two election defeats under Bill Shorten were widely blamed on a lack of trust towards Labor, leading the party this time around to highlight its ‘renewal not revolution’ approach to government. Despite pledging multi-billion dollar spending on ageing and care, Albanese has tried to minimise economic policy differences with the government. Morrison is not particularly well regarded or trusted, despite his election victory in 2019, giving Anthony Albanese an immediate advantage. Morrison has faced accusations of lying and bullying from within his own party, according to the Guardian, meaning even he had to admit in his opening campaign video that the government had not been perfect. Wanting to prioritise low unemployment, his party have been keen to paint Albanese as a left-wing radical, despite the Labor Party leader’s humble upbringing in a council home. Scott Morrison’s own political views may cause controversy, but have managed to previously unite a coalition. A social conservative, he opposed same sex marriage, sought a tough line on immigration and has been widely criticised for his minimalistic approach to managing climate change. However, voters who may be sympathetic to his argument have critiqued the government’s approach towards vaccine mandates, localised lockdowns and an inability to deal with wildfires. Anti-vaxxers even took part in protests at Parliament House, seeking to occupy Canberra, in a recognition of just how international such a dangerous movement has become. Since the campaign’s commencement, Anthony Albanese has not enjoyed a plain-sailing campaign. Right at the start, he was unable to state the unemployment figures and could not commit to an increase in job seeker’s allowance. Later, he committed to increasing the minimum wage by 5.1%, which was criticised for the inevitability of increasing interest rates. Alongside seeking a staff increase of 60,000 in aged care facilities, sought to cost $4bn a year, this demonstrates the focus on wanting to assist older generations. According to the Sydney Morning Herald, 27% of voters are undecided about whether they prefer Scott Morrison or Anthony Albanese, opening up both candidates to a potential large number of voters. Their fortunes however could be take by the Greens, whose federal leader Adam Bandt has helped develop himself as a credible and believable figure. Given the large number of wildfires Australia has faced, sometimes with a large degree of Prime Ministerial ineptitude, the party may be able to capitalise on this, especially with a proportional system. The party currently however only enjoys one seat in the House of Representatives. Opinion polls consistently show Labor ahead, though their poll lead has narrowed since the start of the election campaign. Pollsters are desperate to try and avoid repeating their error in 2019, where few predicted Scott Morrison’s victory. With YouGov polling between 10th and 13th May showing an eight point lead for the Labor Party, it seems they just might be able to achieve the necessary swing to gain those seven seats and lead a majority government. Early voting has now opened, with the economy, given rising inflation and the global cost-of-living crisis, front and centre in the minds of voters. The election still looks like Anthony Albanese’s to lose, with a commanding lead in the polls and the momentum desiring change after nine years of the Liberal-National Coalition in power strong. However, voters and pundits alike would be foolish to underestimate Scott Morrison. Do not forget, just three years ago, Morrison entered the election as a huge underdog against a seemingly component Labor leader. ScoMo - as his nickname goes - came out on top. Were he to repeat that election-winning fear this Saturday, and give his party a fourth term in office, that truly would be a historic achievement.
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