The Prime Minister ran a disastrous election campaign. Wherever you sit on the political seesaw, that is the widely held view. So many elements of that fateful snap election went so wrong. Her awful manifesto, pledging to almost bankrupt pensioners, take school meals away from children and shoot foxes. Dismissing the opposition as borderline terrorists and anti-democrats, endlessly repeating those lies, therefore presuming nobody would vote for them. Running a campaign based entirely around her personality, when she had no personality (no personality suitable for campaigning that is). Using the same old STRONG AND STABLE soundbites that made everyone – political geeks and ordinary folk – want to gouge their eyes out. Despite losing her majority and relying on the socially conservative DUP, May has pledged to go 'on and on.' This means, presumably, that she intends to lead the Tories into a future election. However, by looking back at history, this is totally absurd.
Love them or loathe them, the Tories love winning. Intent on office, they are power hungry maniacs. They believe, for whatever reason, that their party is the natural party of Government. According to them, when their ideology rules the roost, the country is best suited. Therefore, the Tories would want a leader, a potential Prime Minister, who was most likely to win the election. Having seen the calamity of Theresa May – some dubbing her the 'Maybot' - this is unlikely to be repeated at a future election. She is at the will of her parliamentary party. The 1922 backbench committee (a suitably modern choice of name) will throw her out, when they want. She is at their mercy, doing as they please. Though the snap election left her as Prime Minister, Larry the Cat has more authority than the leader of Britain. At least he's not going anywhere. Even Margaret Thatcher, winner of three general elections, majorities of no less than 40, was famously hounded from office in 1990. Her party were more fixated on winning the next election than her own electoral successes as Prime Minister. If a triple election winner is removed, Theresa May, an election loser, has no chance. One of the only reasons Theresa May is still Prime Minister is the B-word. Yes, nobody else wants to be driving the Brexit train (privatised if you're interested). Whether we fly off a cliff or manage a successful, mutually beneficial trade deal, nobody wants to take responsibility for it. By leaving Theresa May in office, she can take total responsibility for whatever happens. If it goes terribly wrong (as I fear it may), Theresa May can resign, taking the Brexit burden with her to Snowdonia. That way, Brexit can be forgotten, a new leader is in place and is more likely to win the next election. This is what the Tories believe. Personally, if the UK ends up shipwrecked in the port of Dover, I don't think the public will forgive the Tories with a different face in charge. I thought she may have resigned on the 9th of June, the hungover morning after the night before. Now she is still in office, it appears most likely that, come April the 1st 2019, a letter of MPs signatures, expressing no confidence in her leadership, will gracefully arrive at her doorstep. No prank, pure ruthlessness. The Tory party would say it has a number of rising stars. Among its parliamentary party, I'm sure there are lots of MPs intent on high office, complete with the luxury of red boxes and ministerial cars. Given Theresa May's age and how long she has been an MP (over 20 years), she is clearly seen as part of the older Tory generation. MPs will be desperate to exert their authority, given their love for power and worries over how secure their constituency seat is. Gradually, I believe there will be a desire to remove Mrs May and let others have a go. It's like school, gradually people leave, replaced with positions of responsibility by the next generation. Boris Johnson, our joke of a foreign secretary, wants to grab the baton, launching his own leadership bid in 'The Daily Telegraph' last week. Thankfully, Mr Johnson isn't that younger than Theresa May. For the sake of Britain, I hope the Tories would choose someone sane over a blithering buffoon. Would Theresa May really want to lead another election campaign? From watching her campaign speeches, she clearly doesn't find the experience comfortable or enjoyable. It appeared such a harrowing experience. She is probably more effective at looking through documents, sifting through waffle to get to the important elements of detail. Whether she draws the right conclusions is doubtful. Perhaps she will go of her own accord, after Brexit. Especially if Brexit turns out to be a success, Mrs May can at least claim that as her legacy. Along with her work at the Home Office, she would be able to leave politics with dignity, when she chooses. Given the history of Tory coups, that could be the appealing option. The Prime Minister may be gone, simply due to fears of the opposition. Any dislike of Theresa May by conservatives is far outnumbered by their fear of the, allegedly, hard-left Labour Party taking office. In the election, Jeremy Corbyn got surprisingly near to Downing Street: not just because of a ghastly Tory campaign, but positive, if uncosted, policies that resonated with swathes of the electorate. If Theresa May allowed him to get so near this election, would the Tories really allow her to lead them again? Personal disapproval of Mrs May, combined with the momentum (small m!) Jeremy Corbyn is generating, could produce an interesting outcome. Given the power-driven attitudes of the Tories, Theresa May going against a rising Jeremy Corbyn would be a recipe for disaster. Like most of my blogs, this is total speculation. Given recent political upsets, you'd be a fool to unilaterally predict what will happen. However, given the evidence from political history, along with the shattering of Theresa May's authority, I could bet my hat that a different person will lead the Tory party into the next election. Then again, this time last year, almost everyone thought Labour under Jeremy Corbyn were doomed. The commonly held view doesn’t always turn out to be the right one. Who knows? Theresa May might reassert her authority, maybe even scrap a majority for fear of a Corbyn premiership. It may happen. I don't think so.
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