I am yet to read ‘Catch-22’, the best-known novel of the American writer Joseph Heller. Nevertheless, the title has become an infamous, frequent phrase to describe a ‘circumstance from which there is no escape because of mutually conflicting conditions’ (according to Google). This definition fits no body better than the UK government, particularly over its policy related to, you’ve guessed it, Brexit.
The government, specifically Theresa May, given she is now in charge of negotiations from the British side, is facing pressure from multiple groups (farmers, EU citizens, scientists, businesses et al) to work towards a certain type of Brexit. Some, especially like the IFS and CBI, would prefer a closer relationship with the EU, while many fishermen would prefer the UK to be more distant from EU policies. Despite all these different requests for infinite desired forms of Brexit, there are two key things the Prime Minister will be considering: what she believes to be in the country’s best interests and what the House of Commons will accept. Having mused over the Parliamentary arithmetic on a coach home from Oxford, it appears the type of deal most likely to pass the Commons – which ultimately has the final say and superiority over the Lords – is a hard Brexit. Bear with me here. Were the government to slightly move away from the Chequers deal, negotiating a Canada-style trade deal, that diverged, more than aligned the UK with the EU, it may just be acceptable to Parliament. The government would vote for it (obviously), as would probably all the Tory Brexiteers and the vast bulk of the Conservative parliamentary party. While some Tory remainers may vote against the deal, preferring to remain in a customs union for example, they probably don’t have the numbers to block the deal. Their largest rebellion, voting against some ERG amendments to the Trade Bill, was 14. The European Research Group, meanwhile, mustered over 60 MPs to sign a hostile open letter to the Prime Minister. Given the potential consequences of voting against the deal and the fact pro-Europeans are more pragmatic than their opponents, that number is unlikely to cancel out the Labour Brexiteers who (unlike the mainstream of the party) would vote for the deal, along with remainer Labour MPs in leave-voting seats who may abstain for fear of future electoral performance. While the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Caroline Lucas would vote against the deal, it may pass, even by one vote. This would be good for the government. Though Theresa May remains utterly weak, winning votes on the trade and customs bill last July marginally strengthened her, showing the government could pass some of its agenda. The same would be true with the Brexit bill. There is only one problem. Such a Brexit would not be in the best interest of the country. Diverging from the EU would, especially in the short and medium term, have severe economic consequences and create more uncertainty. There appears to be no sign Liam Fox has signed any trade deals and, given Canada’s deal took seven years to negotiate, it is, at best, highly unlikely that the 21 month implantation period would be long enough to rectify trading difficulties and the multitude of aspects where the EU is concerned. Electorally, while such a deal may just pass the Commons, if the country feels economically worse off, the results of the ballot box may be harsh. The Conservatives are (mistakenly in my view) regarded as the party of economic competence. If they couldn’t even manage that, why should a swing voter cast their vote for them? By negotiating a deal that survives the Commons, Theresa May’s party, and far more importantly Britain, would be worse off. What is in the UK’s best interest, the other key factor the PM must consider, is therefore diametrically opposed to what will pass the Commons. If the government was to move towards remaining in a customs union and having great alignment with the EU, for the sake of social and economic stability, while respecting the referendum result, there would be more certainty for Britain and the EU. Britain would be seen to be making the best of a bad situation. This will not happen. Even if Theresa May wanted it to, Parliament would not accept it. Mainstream Labour MPs would vote against, preferring electoral opportunism rather than aligning with the government, as would pro-European parties. More importantly, Brexiteer Labour MPs would vote against, not believing it to be a ‘hard’ Brexit. By that logic, Brexiteer Conservative MPs would vote against. One only needs to look at the Maastricht treaty passing Parliament to see they are far less pragmatic than pro-Europeans. They are also in far larger number in terms of the size of rebellions, voting against to result in a no-deal Brexit, for many their desired form of departure. The government would lose the vote and then what? More chaos. Theresa May is in a bind. She is having to please the country, her party, Parliament and the EU. Yet the very outcome that might please Parliament would be a travesty for the country and likely cost the Tories the next election. In contrast, the outcome the EU may be willing to work with, making Brexit more manageable for Britain, her hardline MPs will not allow to become law. Such divisions will only become more noticeable as crunch time on talks in reached. It may be the only option is a general election. Backbench Tory MPs may not vote for one, meaning the PM has to again rely on Labour MPs to repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, which I believe they would do. Normally I would be a supporter, but with B-Day so few months away, the campaign would take up weeks of vital discussion time. It would be fascinating and worrying in equal measure to see how events develop, which side is victorious and what Brexit will mean for the ‘ordinary person’, if such an individual can be found. I look forward to following the political saga in depth, though hopefully not at the expense of my A-levels; although to not follow current affairs may also be costly. Oh dear, another catch-22.
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