Last night's Copeland by-election was truly historic. A Government gaining a seat in a by-election for the 1st time in more than 35 years, with the best Government result in a by-election gain since the 1800s. A seat held by Labour since 1935 gained by a Conservative Government 7 years into its premiership seemed unimaginable. A swing of more than 6% to a Government facing problems on health, transport and our EU membership would appear fictional. But it happened. So, why was the result the way it was? What now happens to the Labour party? And how will a Government with little opposition function in the future?
I think the most important factor in the loss of the Copeland by-election was a local issue. Copeland is an area with a high nuclear energy profile - over 10,000 rely on jobs in that industry. Pro-nuclear constituents would disagree with Jeremy Corbyn's anti-nuclear stance. Presumably, residents worry their jobs may be at risk if a Corbyn led Government came to power. Ever the former Copeland MP, Jamie Reed, resigned his seat in order to work in the nuclear industry. Personally, I agree with Jeremy Corbyn regarding nuclear weapons and energy, believing the money could be far better spent on renewable energy and the army. Thankfully, I have no election to win. I felt the Brexit vote certainly had an impact. Roughly 60% of the Copeland electorate voted for Brexit - not the largest percentage but still a substantial amount. Labour repeated stated that two thirds of their own supporters voted for remain, but the next challenge was to see if areas that voted for Brexit would support their party. While this seemed the case in Stoke-on-Trent Central, it didn't materalise in Copeland. The appeal of change would have been strong. As there had been a Labour MP in Copeland for over 80 years, disillusioned voters may have welcomed the chance to see if anything would improve under the Conservatives. That is precisely parties should never take seats for granted - however safe they appear. This has been proven in Scotland by the SNP eternal dominance and parts of Northern England. The Labour Party is in a tricky position. They have to appeal to both socially conservative, leave working class voters and socially liberal, remain middle class voters. Therefore, constructing a set of policies that equally attract both groups will be very hard. Not forgetting the swing voters that Labour has to win over in key English marginals and the whole of Scotland! Whether Jeremy Corbyn is leader or not, that is a mighty feat. Not impossible, but a challenge. I really worry about the future of the Conservative Government without an alternative government in waiting, holding them strongly to account in the meantime. Whilst I'm pleased the majority of Labour MPs voted to trigger Article 50, there seems to be no proper, credible opposition in other areas. On the subject of Article 50, it was disappointing that none of Labour's amendments were passed. It seems the only united opposition are the SNP, whom don't even want to be at Westminster, wishing to break up the UK. Their aim of independence only seems more likely if there are successive Tory governments. In conclusion, Labour must get its act together and make its message clear. Labour, as an opposition party, should find holding seats in by-elections a walk in the park. Any more seat losses are simply unforgivable.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
Author:Noah enjoys writing a blog and drinking tea Archives
September 2022
Categories
All
|