Brexit. Yes, I had to start another blog post with the B word. It is the issue that will define our times. Economically, it dominates, given the considerable amount of trade we do with the EU. Socially, it dominates, exposing a major philosophical divide in the nation between metropolitan liberal 'anywheres' and rural conservative 'somewheres.' Environmentally, it will define whether climate change is (or isn't) dealt with. And democratically, the shape of Britain's future political system hangs on whether the result people voted for, fair and square, is delivered. Brexit consumes everything.
This isn't going to change, whatever happens this historical autumn. Leave with a deal and we enter the joy of a transition period. Leave with no deal whatsoever and chaos - of every kind - is guaranteed. Hold a second referendum and those divisions will just be re-exposed. Revoke Article 50 and cries of betrayal, traitors, elites will never stop. People should stop pretending their solution to Brexit will solve everything and allow the country to 'move on.' 17.4 million individuals across the country voted for our EU departure. They must accept the consequences of their decision dominating the political landscape, the cost (or benefit some might say) being other vital policy areas are ignored. Boris Johnson, in one form or another, will be known as the Brexit Prime Minister. This mirrors his two predecessors in Number 10: David Cameron and Theresa May. The first caused Brexit, the second failed to deliver. Johnson has shaped his legacy around our departure, whatever happens, by the end of October. You m ay note this precisely echoes Theresa May's language at the start of 2019, where she repeatedly guaranteed the UK would depart the EU on March 29th. That didn't happen. According to the media, Boris would prefer a deal over no deal. The evidence for this is clear in his backbench voting record. On the third occasion Mrs May presented her Withdrawal Agreement, Johnson voted for it, despite publicly opposing many elements within. He was not one of the 34 Conservative MPs who has consistently voted against delivering Brexit on every possible occasion. Free from Westminster over the summer recess, he has toured European capitals meeting the significant President Macron of France and Chancellor Merkel of Germany. Whatever our views on Boris, this is a good thing on two counts. Firstly, it's a matter of reality that we are still going to have some form of relationship with Europe and the EU, whatever form Brexit takes. Geographically, the EU will remain our neighbour (to both our advantages). That they are still willing to talk to a departing nation should send an optimistic message for that vital future relationship. Secondly, the ideals of diplomacy, discussion, negotiation and compromise between nations should always be celebrated. Despite my animosity towards both leaders, I was always pleased that American President Donald Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un met one another instead of firing nuclear bombs. A friendly, harmonious relationship with the EU is required. This could be the case from their recent language. Angela Merkel stated that she believed there was still time to solve the issue of the Northern Irish backstop, the conundrum that prevented Theresa May's withdrawal agreement from passing. This optimism is welcome, but I still don't see any withdrawal agreement existing without a backstop. Officials who know far more about international trade and the EU than you or I have spent years trying to come up with a solution. Remember maximum facilitation? The customs partnership? Alternatives were investigated. None of them were proven to work. That hasn't stopped people from trying to present alternatives. Frequently, claims of 'alternative arrangements' with 'new technology' are discussed. Such Orwellian, ambiguous phrasing that tells the public absolutely nothing. From the little reading up I have done, the 'alternative arrangements' seem to be having a border away from the official border. Therefore there will be still be many customs and tariff checks. Technology used at the Canadian and American border - which conveniently forgets to mention the Troubles and Irish nationalism - is mentioned but not elaborated upon. I can't help but thinking that, if there was such an obvious solution, Boris Johnson would have spent the whole summer promoting its brilliance to the masses. Given the Brexiteers are in charge of government, one would think they are desperate to promote Brexit optimistically. That doesn't appear to have been the case, with discussions instead based on preparing the public and businesses for leaving the European Union with no deal, no arrangements and no certainty. So, what happens next? That is the question on everyone's minds as summer fades into autumn, the leaves beginning to fall from the trees. The party conference season is in the diary at the most inconvenient time possible. Everyday before October 31st counts, because, as Brexiteers never cease of reminding us, Britain will legally depart on that day. Boris Johnson may return a deal to the Commons that looks remarkably like Theresa May's and is, once again, remarkably defeated. Remainer MPs would refuse to give ground unless a referendum was attached, Brexiteers like Steve Baker would oppose elements even outside of the backstop. Mr Johnson could then attempt to proceed with leaving the EU without a deal. It is rumoured that MPs would attempt to stop this, using legislative arrangements or a vote of confidence. Once again, the theme of this year would be repeated. MPs are very able at voting for what they oppose, but not what they support. The Institute for Government have reported that no deal is difficult for the legislature to stop, but hey, some archaic procedure may be found. Thus Britain would neither leave the EU with or without a deal. The prospect of Mr Johnson calling an election, if he is not forced into one by Parliament, then seems incredibly likely. He would then, like Theresa May, try to pit Parliament against the people. Ironically, it would be a repeat of Edward Heath's February 1974 'Who Governs Britain?' election with just a few differences. Instead of trade unions having a monopoly on policy influence, it would be MPs. Even though we pay MPs to have that role. And instead of Britain beginning its journey instead the European Community, it would be departing. Johnson shouldn't expect success. He won handsomely among the Tory grassroots, but they are Conservative members who, if a donkey was the Conservative candidate, would still vote Conservative. While he won London, a Labour city, not once, but twice, things have changed since. That metropolitan Tory and socially liberal coalition that propelled him to City Hall has surely disintegrated, given how associated Mr Johnson is with his advocation of Brexit. A clear majority of Londoners were opposed to that. Victory is in sight for nobody. A general election, like a second referendum, could solve nothing. Media and politicians of all shades would use an election campaign to worsen the divisions which have made civilised discussion impossible. It's easy to think there is no solution to Brexit. I see one way through however. Johnson calls an election specifically on a Brexit platform, highlighting the Conservatives as the true Brexit party under a first past the post system. Thanks to Brexit dominating the election campaign, (unlike the 2017 campaign), previously tribal Labour voters who supported departure switch to Boris. They admire his charm, his personality, his confidence in Britain. The Brexit Party may, fearing a Corbyn government with no Brexit at all, decide to stand aside in key Labour/Tory marginals. Combining this message with support for the union means the gains Johnson makes in the north just about override his losses to the Lib Dems in the south west. Let's just say he returns to Westminster with a small parliamentary majority. I could imagine his majority Conservative government resolving the backstop by implementing the original proposals of the EU: having a Northern Ireland only backstop. That way, a border on the island of Ireland would be prevented, with Northern Ireland aligning with EU regulations. No longer dependent on the DUP for a majority, a border on customs and regulations would instead be created in the Irish sea. Initially, as a proud unionist, I was opposed to this. But then I realised, thanks to devolution (which I personally think has gone too far), Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all differ on various aspects of policy to the UK. Yet we, for now, remain a United Kingdom. Why would a slight difference in regulations between Great Britain and Northern Ireland be such an issue? All the major Northern Irish political parties apart from the DUP support a backstop. With that version of the backstop, where only one part of the UK is kept inside EU regulations, a deal might just squeak past Parliament. I realise I am making a number of assumptions as I gaze into the political future. Of course, I use the caveat that nobody knows what is going to happen. That has always been the case in politics. One can have the best contacts (and I currently have a grand total of none!) and still not entirely know future events. Instead, commentators, tweeters, bloggers and politicians themselves are instead reliant on a crystal ball (Mystic Meg style). What I do know is that Brexit is an endless hamster wheel. We are eternally spinning as multiple Brexit stuff is reported every single day. Debates about Brexit, like we were still fighting the 2016 referendum, take place every single day. The only time for reflection, bringing individual events together in a broader narrative, is in Tim Shipman's tombs. At the same time, the sight of the hamster wheel remains consistent, with little, in the grand scheme of things, actually altering. We are still inside the EU. If people - MPs, the government, the public - want that to change, they better realise this autumn is for making decisions. Decisions that will impact hundreds of millions of citizens now, regardless of demographics, and future generations for many decades to come. Buckle up!
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