Thank goodness for Jeremy Hunt. I never thought I would utter that phrase, regarding much of Mr Hunt's time in charge of the NHS with disdain. While he has been a fairly competent Foreign Secretary, that is because nobody could have been less competent than the previous occupier of the post (you know who)
So I hold no candle for Mr Hunt. But he is fine in this respect. By refusing to withdraw from the Conservative Party leadership election, he is ensuring that both candidates are held accountable. Hustings are taking place, some chaired by LBC presenter Iain Dale, all over the country, where each candidate is probed both by the compere and audience. Candidates are having to give detailed answers to win over as many Conservative party members as possible. No coronation is taking place. Just remember what the next Prime Minister - whoever that happens to be - will face. They will enter office with less than 100 days until we are due to leave the European Union. On their desk will be a 585 Withdrawal Agreement that Parliament has failed to ratify three times. Yet the EU have said there is no chance of re-opening this agreement. While they are happy to look at the Political Declaration (where the real fun begins) that is non-binding. Add this to all the domestic problems they face (one of favourite moments in this race has been all the candidates moaning about the country - guys, who has been in charge for nearly a decade?!) and the job looks a complete nightmare. I certainly wouldn't want it. Yet one of these two men - Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt - will inherit that role. Despite Jeremy Hunt performing better than many expected in the contest, the overwhelming favourite is Boris. In a ComRes poll of Tory councillors, Johnson led Hunt by 61% to 39%. This is quite the surprise. Many forget that, only a few months ago, he was not the favourite. Repeatedly, journalists talked about his number of enemies within the party, that his time in Westminster was up, that there was no chance of him attaining high office. Since the Tory's shambolic performance in the European elections, that has transformed. Within weeks, he has gone from zero - lurking on the backbenches drafting columns for the Daily Boris/Telegraph - to, among a majority of Tory MPs, hero. There have been multiple trips and stumbles during Boris' campaign. Repeatedly, he has failed to convey how the Withdrawal Agreement can be renegotiated to remove the backstop, and indeed, what would replace the backstop to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland. In frequent interviews, he has talked about good faith and optimism being required in renegotiation. Those abstract principles are important in any negotiation but, in reality, these are vacuous statements of rhetoric. Don't get me started on supposed 'alternative arrangements.' Anyway, if he wanted good faith, why did Mr Johnson repeatedly make diplomatic stumbles and errors - to put it politely - as foreign secretary? This lack of cohesive and concrete policy information is symbolic of Boris. He has a characteristic to approach issues with little regard for detail. While he is interested in the big picture, the ability to grasp policy making and direction is a clear weakness. Indeed, the former Home Secretary Jacqui Smith stated that Boris Johnson often wouldn't have read his brief when Mayor of London. This can most evidently be seen in the tragic case of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe. Stuck in an Iranian jail for over three years, Mr Johnson's remarks that she was 'teaching journalism', when doing the very opposite, were used as a justification to increase her jail sentence. Individuals backing Boris, however, have stated that the Iranians should be wholly blamed for her unjust imprisonment. Of course, the fundamental blame should lie with the Iranians for placing Nazanin in prison simply for being holiday. But the UK can still make the situation worse, by using sloppy rhetoric that helps to fuel Iranian propaganda. That one side is awful doesn't deny the other side any responsibility of guilt. It is the same, for example, with the Iraq War. Apart from a few far-left and far-right nutters, everyone believed and knew Saddem Hussein was a brutal dictator. The debate was whether the Western intervention would have made matters worse for the Iraqi people. Mr Johnson's splutters certainly did that for Nazanin, as is evident by the Ratcliffes resorting to a two week hunger strike. His foreign policy is flawed at best. On Brexit grounds, the matters get even worse. Despite the chances of renegotiation, ratification and implementation of any altered Brexit deal by October 31st looking increasingly slim, Boris Johnson has said this must be done by this date. No ifs, no buts. Whether this is due to a wish to enact the 2016 referendum result democratically or just prevent annihilation of the Conservative Party at future elections, who knows? To ensure Britain leaves the EU, he has even contemplated leaving without any agreement and potentially proroguing Parliament to do this. According to Commons briefing paper, this would mean 'MPs and Peers cannot formally debate government policy and legislation, submit parliamentary questions for response by government departments, scrutinize government activity through parliamentary committees or introduce legislation of their own.' So much for parliamentary democracy! It is unclear whether Mr Hunt would do the same, but Mr Johnson's point goes against the fundamentals of parliamentary sovereignty, where the executive enacts policies based on the legislature's approval. Parliament has not endorsed leaving the EU with no agreement, meaning it would be undemocratic to enact it. Of course, the people may be able to give their verdict on the matter sooner than we think, if a general election is forced due to two votes of no confidence in the government. It is unclear whether the EU would grant an automatic extension to Article 50 in those circumstances. There are some reasons to be optimistic however. Among the general public, according to YouGov, Mr Hunt now leads by 41% to 29% to be the best Prime Minister compared to Boris Johnson. Nevertheless, among Conservative voters, Johnson is ahead by 48% to 39%, though a smaller lead than I would expect. Yet another YouGov poll shows a quarter (25%) of people think that Boris Johnson would be a good Prime Minister compared to 58% against, with his net figure of disapproval increasing from -18 to -33. The health warning is, of course, that the public don't have a say in this election and, who believes opinion polls these days. Though it's easy to make comparisons, Boris Johnson is very similar to Donald Trump. Both inherited a wealthy background, both have unique hairs and a varied lifestyle. Yet they are both still popular, unable to lose support among supposedly moderate supporters, because of their ability to win elections. Putting party before country has never been more evident. If Jeremy Hunt wants any chance of winning, or at least reducing Boris' victory, he must offer a convincing vision. Just being an entrepreneur, while admirable, is not enough. I'm afraid, from what I've been seeing, Jeremy Hunt appears just as vague in regards to Brexit with no cohesive vision. While he may be more likely to attain a deal due to his diplomacy, it is unclear whether that will win over the Tory party membership, many of whom who support no deal. The real question is whether Hunt can offer an optimistic, compelling, realistic vision that is able to convince people he differs enough from Theresa May. To be the Prime Minister won't be a luxurious experience, whoever takes office. If Boris Johnson takes office, he will have the honour of being openly loathed and held in contempt by a minority - still a significant number - of his parliamentary party. Whether those Conservative Remainers would translate into voting against the government in a no confidence motion, which would, rightly, mean the end of their careers, I'm not so sure. That's not to forget his present supporters, no doubt all of whom have been offered jobs, far more than any government could contain, even if a Department of Administrative Affairs was created. The Boris gravy train must be destined for Downing Street. Yet the only matter keeping me calm in these perilous times is the potential for Greater Johnson/Boris Rail being derailed over Europe, just like Major, Cameron and May, in the not too distant future.
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