Given I’d written a blog on the day of the local elections in praise of the Alliance Party in Northern Ireland, offering some reflections on the elections as a whole seemed worthwhile. As I write on Saturday afternoon, only two thirds of the Northern Ireland Assembly’s seats have declared, so some caveats are necessary. Indeed, you would think from much of the coverage that the results had already concluded, just further demonstrating how detached Northern Ireland can appear from London’s coverage. It may become further attached in the not too distant future (more on that later).
Before starting my ten initial thoughts, a note on the elephant in the room. These could be the last set of elections Sir Keir Starmer fights as Labour leader. Given Durham police are now investigating the gathering on 30th April 2021, during the Hartlepool by-election, Starmer would have, for my money, no choice but to resign if he was fined. Should the Tories get rid of Johnson, you could just imagine them using Starmer’s own attack lines against him in future general election campaign adverts. For now, the investigation continues. Guido Fawkes have reported Starmer telling his advisors he will go if fined, with Labour lawyers believing he had a 60% chance of avoiding the fine. Given Partygate stories first erupted last autumn, it’s easy to feel weary and fatigued about cake, beer and pizza gatherings, not least when a war is taking place in Europe. However, take it back to first principles. A Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition with criminal records do not deserve to hold such high office. That should be self-evident. From a purely tactical perspective, Starmer (and presumably Angela Rayner) both resigning would put the Conservatives in a tricky situation. Electing a new Leader of the Opposition with no links to any rule breaking and Johnson’s position looks even more precarious. A precedent has (rightly) been set and followed that law breaking equals resignation alongside a fine. However, Johnson has been perfectly happy to break precedents before (need I mention the prorogation of Parliament….). Back to the local elections. In some sort of order and structure, here are my ten initial, spontaneous reflections on this year’s ‘will of the people’ (to coin a phrase) and what, if anything it reveals. 1) How much can local elections reveal? This is a point not explored enough in my view. While politicos such as yours truly love nothing more than an election to give the electorate the agency to change the political landscape, the extent to which local results translate into a national picture is unclear. Firstly, so many parts of the country don’t vote during local elections (Cambridge, where I’m from, thankfully has local elections every year!). Secondly, turnout at local elections is utterly abysmal and is usually 25% higher (at least) at a general election. Most importantly, people vote differently when they are changing the local council compared to the prospect of changing the entire government. The BBC and Sky, for fun more than anything, did a mockup prediction of what the results would mean, given the vote share, if replicated across the country. The Conservatives were the largest party in both, losing 112 and 87 seats respectively on their 2019 performance. Though a result undoubtedly favoured by all anti-Tories, it forgets the unique circumstances of a general election (like by-elections). Indeed, it still remains unclear to me whether such polling is even weighted to account for the whole country and its different demographics. Local election analysis, therefore, must always be approached with a degree of caution. 2) Managed expectations never meant so much It couldn’t even take a pandemic to stop the same local elections expectation management pattern. It always repeats itself. A party claims they are either set to lose far more seats than is possible or have only the minimal amount of gains. When they perform slightly less poorly, or gain more seats than expected, it is spun as a great victory. Interestingly, the Daily Mail of all papers (a publication becoming increasingly sympathetic to the Johnson government) span 350+ loses for the Tories as a disaster and 200+ gains for Labour as a triumph. Both have happened. 3) Labour are - for now - the party of London Throughout the night, Labour’s success story was in London, partially because so many parts of the country weren’t counting until Friday morning (it’s not the same!). Managing to gain Westminster and Wandsworth council, these were areas Tony Blair never managed to claim. Both voted remain in 2016 suggesting this electoral alliance still holds importance. And despite being written up as beacons of luxury, both contain immense poverty. Also reclaiming Barnet from the Conservatives, an area with a high Jewish population, it suggests Labour are on the road to dealing with antisemitism. However, the Conservative success in Harrow (perhaps due to the Indian population, though this trend needs exploring further) and gaining ground in Enfield highlights they cannot be ignored. I'd strongly recommend this UnHerd article by Tomiwa Owolade which explores how London bucks many of the contemporary trends and has a far more mixed political and social outlook. 4) The Conservatives cling on in the north Indeed, despite having been in government for 12 years, there were glimmers of hope for Boris Johnson. I tweeted yesterday the Conservatives often try to remould themselves in government, presenting themselves as a new party every time a leader changes. When it comes to elections however, they are quite happy to blame their failures on being in office for over a decade. However, making gains in Newcastle-under-Lyme, Hartlepool and Bolton demonstrates seats which fell to the Conservatives in 2019 have not fully gone away, despite Covid, the cost of living and Partygate. 5) Labour reclaim some New Labour seats As ever, the initial overnight results could never paint a full picture. And it is undoubtedly the case that Labour are coming back in parts of the country reminiscent of seats won under Tony Blair. From winning Crawley, Worthing and Southampton alongside taking the new Cumberland County Council, these gains are meaningful and could translate into parliamentary constituencies were people to vote the same at general elections as local elections. As the Liberal Democrats have argued, fighting back nationality relies upon a strong local base. Taking of which… 6) The Liberal Democrats begin their fightback The other party who have cause to celebrate are the often forgotten Liberal Democrats. Seven years on from their battering at the 2015 election after the coalition, they have struggled to find their grounding. Attaching themselves to the cause of stopping Brexit, that project similarly ended in failure in December 2019. However, gaining 189 seats and five councils is no mean feat. When the councils gained include Hull (from Labour) and Gosport (from the Tories), both of which voted Leave, it demonstrates their revival and success as local campaigners is strong. Indeed, in St Albans, which they already held, they now have 50 seats to the Conservatives’ four. What a contrast. 7) The SNP remain dominant after 15 years in power North of the border, the SNP gained 62 seats, winning Dundee from No Overall Control. Given the Single Transferrable Vote is used for Scottish local elections, it becomes far harder for one party to hold a council. However, for a governing party to be gaining seats over a decade after taking office is a remarkable achievement. Even Labour were unable to take back Glasgow from No Overall Control, holding 36 seats to the SNP’s 37. As ever, Nicola Sturgeon will use these results as a mandate to stir calls for another independence referendum, though it is notable she has been quieter on this front since her victory in the Scottish Parliament elections last year. 8) The Conservatives are an English party Back down south of the border again and it becomes increasingly clear that the Conservatives are an English party. English in the sense that their performances in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland (where they do field candidates) has been appalling. Despite successes in Nuneaton and Bedworth council along with Amber Valley (all parliamentary seats held under Blair), they lost Monmouthshire in Wales to No Overall Control, losing six seats while Labour gained 14. Thanks to the inept leadership of Douglas Ross in Scotland, the Conservatives have similarly sunk and allowed Anas Sarwar’s Labour to replace them. 9) Northern Ireland has been bitterly neglected I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: perhaps the most important elections this year are the ones most ignored. Northern Ireland’s future is deeply volatile and uncertain, not least in the wake of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal creating a border down the Irish Sea. Currently, Sinn Fein hold 21 seats while the DUP languish on 19. Pleasingly, the Alliance Party are on 15 seats, ensuring they hold a say in the Assembly. While Michelle O’Neill has spoken in an open and inclusive manner about working ‘irrespective of religious, political, or social background’. However, Sinn Fein’s long game is obvious. Just as the Scottish government might be set to battle with Westminster in the courts on a Scottish independence referendum, the same, on a far larger scale, could happen across the Irish Sea. 10) Labour don’t need a majority to win power When all is said and done, the impact these results will have on the next election is what most people explore. A incorrect statement often made about Keir Starmer is that he needs to recover all of Labour’s losses in 2019, 2017, 2015 and 2010 to win. He doesn’t. That would bring him a majority of 66, which Labour enjoyed in 2005. To govern, Starmer (or whoever the Labour leader is) doesn’t even need a majority of one. Despite my previous remark about the Conservatives being the party of England, they lost control in West Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells and Maidstone, all classic Tory seats. From these elections, Labour may decide that, in order to be in a position when they can form a coalition or confidence and supply agreement with other parties, their electoral attention may be better focused on 2010 losses rather than the ‘Red Wall’ (a term I loathe). Given the Liberal Democrats perform well when Labour does, their success in, among other places, Somerset and Woking, benefits Labour. While Labour’s path to power remains long, these elections suggest that, though tricky, it is not impossible.
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