June 2016 has become a significant milestone in my life for a number of reasons. Two years ago, I undertook some valuable, insightful volunteering at a local branch of the Department for Work and Pensions, which exposed me to some of the most vulnerable people in society, who desperately want a job and the ability to get on with their lives. Two years ago, I began this blog, which both seems like yesterday and a lifetime ago. Nearly 140 blogs later, every week is a combination of mindnumbing panic, the irrational belief I have lost the ability to ever write a blog again, and much satification and enjoyment during the writing process. More nationally, over 730 days ago, Britain voted to depart the European shores.
I am sure most people would be aware voting to leave would be a significant event. Departing ourselves from a bloc of almost 500 million people, the largest single market in the world to pursue our own ventures was always going to be transformative. The sheer quantity of laws and processes that link Britain to the EU meant a decision to scrap and move on from that relationship would be a challenge. Two years on, Britain, and the EU’s future, looks just as uncertain today as it did on that fateful referendum day. None of the viewers and those taking part in the negoitations have any idea what the final deal will be. Theresa May speculated early on in her Lancaster House speech that she wished to leave the single market and customs union. Though these are her aspirations, a final agreement looks yet to be reached. Despite Michael Barnier suggesting both sides agreed on 75% of the details, the conclusive, definitive drafting of Britain’s future relationship with the main bedrocks of the EU are just as unknown today. Political instability and confusion remains just as profound. The immediate aftermath of the vote, forcing David Cameron’s resignation, left Parliament and the country in political chaos. It’s staggering, looking back, to think both of the major parties were having elections over the summer of 2016, just when immediate stability and certainty was desired, if not possible. Two years on, reports of the Prime Minister’s weakness are daily. She clings on, trying to survive each week without a leadership challenge. Even though MPs from both wings of her parliamentary party – Anna Soubry and Jacob Rees-Mogg – have stated their support in a vote of confidence, yet more briefings of Cabinet disarary, for example Gavin Williamson allegedly pledging to ‘take May’ down if he doesn’t receive more money for defence, only emphasize the internal, eternal instability. The same could be true of other parties. Jeremy Corbyn has managed to consulate his position as Labour leader, performing considerably better than expected in last year’s election. There has been no leadership election and, unless Mr Corbyn decides to stand down, he will lead Labour into the next election. Yet there remains much division within his party, not only over Brexit but foreign, economic and defence policies. How these wings would be bought together, let alone at an election, but in government, remains confusing. The Lib Dems have not enjoyed a revivial after leaving the coalition, their hardline support for remaining in the EU a barrier to success in many of their former south west strongholds. Support for Scottish independence wanes, Nicola Sturgeon suffering a tougher period in her SNP leadership. Nevertheless, unionists must remain worried at the lack of time allocated to a debate about devolution, influenced by a supposedly unionist party. Issues of the union have never been so stronger. As I tweeted during an episode of Radio 4’s brilliant ‘Any Questions?’, I simply can’t recall the Irish border being a major point of discussion during the campaign. Clearly, there must be a soft border between the Republic and Northern Ireland to maintain peace, fulfil the Good Friday Agreement and allow a pragmatic compromise between unionists and nationalists. The manner which with some Brexiteers seem to dismiss the Irish border as something that can easily be solved forgets the political context and turmoil that killed more than 3,000 over decades. It is no surprise Northern Ireland voted to remain by over 55%; those in power must ensure the whole union is considered as negotiations proceed. Brexit has dominated politics and will continue to dominate politics. Even after we have left next March, we will be departing only in name due to the 21 month transition period. In the run up to our final date of departure in December 2020, the discussion of arrangements, future plans, negotiations and agreements will overshadow other government departments. Whatever your views, one cannot deny that Britain is linked to the EU in so many ways. From fishing to hoovers, bananas to nuclear power, the variety of areas that will be affected – and that haven’t even been massively promoted in the media – will continue to lead the headlines whether you like it or not. This, of course, is damaging for the potential change government can make to other departments. If Brexit remains the key priority for the foreseeable future, departments that need reform and assistance simply won’t have the level of attention they deserve. The extra spending for the NHS announced a fortnight ago is the clearest example. The government try to promote this extra money as a ‘Brexit dividend’, totally forgetting both the years they have accounted extra money for are when the divorce bill is still being paid and that if something harms the economy (the B word), there is less money for everything. The spinning of money coming from the EU, when instead it will come from increased taxation, represents a care not for our health service (which also needs much reform) but for future electoral success. If the situation is bleak at home, overseas the problem of populism and never-ending isolationism is just as bad. In France, President Macron attempts to present a renewed version of liberalism, but his popularity ratings decline. In Germany, Angela Merkel seems to be losing stability, a disagreement with her Interior Minister potentially sealing her fate as German chancellor. The new coalition government of Italy involving nutters on the left and right represents just how out of touch people feel politics has become. Instead of mainstream, common sense figures offering proper, sensible solutions to globalisation, automation, advancing technology, terrorism and climate change, voices of anger are able to capture dissent and frustration, using this to take countries backwards. Clearly, there will be people that were never happy with the referendum result. I was in London last Saturday, and saw dozens of people in EU t-shirts, waving their flags, showing off their facepaint and carictures of our leaders. To bring together over 100,000 people, as the press is reporting, for a people’s vote is nothing but impressive. However, according to opinion polls, public mood towards remain v leave simply doesn’t appear to have changed that much. Some polls put remain higher, others for leave. What if this vote was held again and leave won? What would the remainers do? Best of five? In all the documentation on a people’s vote I have read, there is no explanation for what they will do if Britain once again decides to leave the EU. Given the House of Commons numbers, the majority of Tory MPs and most Labour MPs opposed to a second referendum, suggests unless a vastly reshaped lower house is constructed from another election or public opinion changes overwhelmingly, a people’s vote looks set to just be a fantasy. In the end, I believe Britain and EU will reach a compromise arrangement that ties us to some of the EU’s institutions while removing ourselves from others. Put frankly, it is in the best interests of both players for this to occur. While Britain may leave, the EU must take our departure as a warning if it wants to survive. I’m sure David Cameron was handed a poor deal because the group arrogantly believed the UK would of course vote to remain. The EU must become more democratic and transparent, handing far more powers and responsibilities to MEPs, the elected chamber that should decide the solutions to challenges facing Europe and is fundamentally accountable to the people. While any reform will be pleasing, I am only sad that Britain is leaving, and not leading, these vital, necessary changes.
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