There are few things I love more than elections. Over the many years I’ve written this blog, one thing that hasn’t changed is my celebration for individuals utilising the power to make radical political change. For some, that is actively being involved with the political process by standing for public office or working as a special adviser. Others will become involved in local campaigns, fighting for particular causes to make their area better. Elections, however, are the one occasion where the entire demos can frame their future.
Taking place across the UK today, the local elections will largely be viewed as a reflection of national political trends. If the Conservatives perform terribly in London and the south, that will be seen as an indicator of Boris Johnson’s Partygate antics. Should Labour struggle in areas they lost in 2019, questions will be raised about Keir Starmer’s prospects of ever entering Number 10. Were the SNP to perform terribly in the Scottish local elections, it would finally provide much needed local opposition which has been absent for the last decade. However, perhaps the most crucial set of elections this Thursday are those which have received the least attention, from the media and pundits alike. In Northern Ireland, voters will go to elect 90 members to the Northern Ireland Assembly, the first such election since 2017. On the terms of the Belfast Agreement of 1998, the executive government is then made up of the largest unionist party and largest nationalist party. Almost unprecedented anywhere else in the world, it marks the huge importance of religion and identity to one’s sense of place. Individuals are raised Catholic and Irish or Protestant and British. Though I have many criticisms of Blair’s Agreement (not least for freeing terrorists, an anathema to justice), this model of forcing parties to worth together requires necessary pragmatic compromise. Except when one side pulls out. If the First Minister leaves, the Deputy First Minister automatically loses their position. This has led to the Assembly being suspended between 2002 and 2007, 2017 and 2020 and now since February 2022 after First Minister Paul Givan resigned over the Northern Ireland Protocol. The Assembly’s structure brings with it the very opposite of stability. One of the many factors heightening the election’s importance is the prospect that Sinn Fein, the largest nationalist party, might become the largest party. This, for the first time, would lead to a Sinn Fein First Minister being appointed in the form of Michelle O’Neill. That raises immense questions about whether Sinn Fein would seek to hold a border poll (strangely not called a referendum). Polling in March and April 2022 gave Sinn Fein between a 6% and 8% lead in the polls, making their victory a very likely possibility. Would the DUP then agree to enter government? If it meant a border poll was on the cards, surely not. The return of direct rule would then follow, giving Westminster complete control over affairs in Northern Ireland. Granted, Westminster managed to enact some progressive changes with those powers between 2017 and 2020, including extending same sex marriage and access to abortion. But would this be sustainable in the long term? Part of the reason of the reason Northern Ireland feels separated from the rest of the UK on a more than geographical basis is its huge and continued sectarianism. Religion holds a weight and status in a manner with no equivalence elsewhere. Protestant and Catholic schools remain with an inter-religious community still patchy, even if violence poses less of a threat than during The Troubles. One’s perception of identity, being solely Irish or British, holds extreme excess. Thank goodness, then, for the Alliance Party. Led by Naomi Long since 2016, they are the Liberal Democrats of Northern Ireland. Currently the fifth largest party, they currently hold seven seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly and a single seat in the House of Commons. Though labelled centrists on Wikipedia (a lazy, ambiguous term as the great Steve Richards will tell you!), their most important attribute is being non-sectarian and seeking to move beyond religious divides. Those who seek themselves first and foremost as neither unionists or nationalists but simply pragmatists (perhaps a low number in Northern Ireland!) should want the Alliance Party to perform well. With recent polling showing them repeatedly in third place, they have a clear chance to become the power brokers and ensure stable governance of Northern Ireland takes priority. Indeed, the Alliance Party are interestingly opposed to the power sharing structure involving both parties as they regard it as entrenching, rather than transcending, sectarian divides. Naomi Long herself is a politician who would evidently have the skills to become First Minister or Deputy First Minister, even though the unionist/nationalist binary on taking office makes it highly unlikely. Having served as an MP, MEP and MLA, she has the electoral and political experience over decades to recognise Northern Ireland’s priorities. Always one willing to stand for public office, she has behaved in a diligent and competent manner. Rather, she currently serves as Minister of Justice in the Northern Ireland Executive. Why? Because Sinn Fein and the DUP don’t trust one another to hold that most important, and controversial, of offices. The Troubles and the impact of policing still rings very true in Northern Ireland over two decades on, with fears of exploitation and a lack of fairness in how justice is served. Thus, the neutral arbiter of the Alliance Party becomes necessary. If they can perform effectively there, why not other aspects of government? Among the many exhausting things about the obsessive focus on sectarian divides and religious differences is the time and energy it takes away from numerous policy areas: health, education, housing, transport, the future of work, which require exploration and action. Besides, what about those, increasingly young, people who aren’t religious at all? Surely the religious alliances of the DUP and Sinn Fein would put them off. If I lived in Northern Ireland, my vote would proudly go to the Alliance Party. I hope others think the same.
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