Last September seems an age ago. It was 2017. I was yet to find my feet in sixth form, a mere speculator about events to come. The allegations against Harvey Weinstein, prompting the exposure of sexual misconduct around the world, hadn't come to light. All in all, it was a totally different world. Apart from one thing: the position of Theresa May. Back then, I was writing about how she had no chance of fighting the next election. Since then, the one area in which the Prime Minister remains strong and stable is her total weakness.
Mrs May was in a dire situation five months ago. Well, have things got better? From a commentator's point of view, it's hard to say anything but no. Lest we forget the catastrophic conference speech, leaving the Prime Minister, the Tory party and the country spluttering for some sign of hope. There was a patchy, but openly agreed position between the EU and UK at the end of 'stage 1.' Yet even this went wrong: Mrs May forgot to ask her DUP allies for permission on the deal and they forced her to reconsider. Her January reshuffle, designed to reignite the government with purpose and a mission, was meek, to say the least. Initially, in the hours following that exit poll in June, there were plans for Mrs May to fall on her sword. Though murmurs of her imminent departure calmed down after the election, seven months nearer to the next election, Conservatives are not happy. They openly criticize her on Twitter. They can refuse to take new jobs or be moved from Cabinet positions. Though the Conservatives are close to Labour in the polls, Jeremy Corbyn remains a political threat to them. The calls for her to resign are rife. Yet despite this madness of a government (surely, we in Britain should be used to this after years of political turmoil?), I don't believe now, or at any point in the near future, is the right time for Theresa may to depart to Snowdonia permanently. Look at the alternatives. Theresa May, like all humans, has vast numbers of flaws. Her support of welfare cuts, Trident, the Iraq War, vans telling illegal immigrants to 'go home' and fox hunting are reprehensible. Yet, on some issues, like same-sex marriage, abortion and gender, she is remarkably liberal. Economically, she desires helping the poor, partially through workers appearing on company boards. No action has yet occurred on this, but it is far more comforting that some other potential candidates. Jacob Rees-Mogg is hugely popular among the Tory membership. He's the new Boris Johnson. If he ran for leader and made the final ballot, they would be his electorate. The Tory membership (when it gets a chance to vote) nearly always chooses a Eurosceptic candidate. Can you imagine a premiership under him? He makes Theresa May look down with the kids. His horrific mix of Victorian social conservatism combined with complete economic liberalism would be so damaging for Britain. He must never be allowed to enter Number 10 as its main inhabitant. A leadership election would make Brexit - which is already going badly – even worse. People fail to realize how little time there is until we actually leave. In just over a year, we will have left the EU. How there will be time to negotiate all aspects of our trade, the institutions we remain a part of, come to an agreement with suits the EU27, the UK Parliament and the people (if necessary) in 13 months, I don't know. Britain needs every day it can get to try and come to a compromise agreement suiting both sides. A leadership election, just like the general election, would take months off potential negotiations. Taking of an election, that's what a leadership election could potentially force. It's unlikely, but if the DUP revoked their agreement, disliking the candidate elected, a vote of no confidence in the government could be held. They might lose. Given the current state of the Tories, forming a new government within 14 days may be impossible resulting in yes, a return to the polls. Not only would this rightly nark voters- being forced to troop to the polling station again. The time for Brexit would be squeezed, all because of party squabbling. The contempt for politicians, not helped by Brexit, would be made even worse. Ministers must be given time to shine in their departments. Granted, some are more than useless, have no idea what they are doing and should have never been appointed in the first place. But while people may disagree with the decisions secretaries of state arrive at, it is hard to argue that they lack expertise or the ability to understand a brief. Unfortunately, Jeremy Hunt, who has been given more than enough time to prove himself at the Department for Health, has failed miserably after half a decade managing NHS England. This is true for nearly all departments; people are either moved around too quickly or have stayed in the same post for too long, few new ideas seeping into Government. Like or loath Michael Gove, his seems to be the only member of the Cabinet pursuing his agenda as Environment Secretary, coming up with new ideas to make Britain and the rest of the world, a greener place. How can other cabinet ministers be allowed the time to come up with ideas fit for government, through a change of Prime Minister, the direction of the government constantly unclear? Another thing that hasn't changed since last September is my belief Theresa May will not fight the next election as Prime Minister. Yet again, this time in China, she vowed to be party leader in 2022, allow the country to rate her, once again, on her record. For a party obsessed with power at any cost, having seen their leader drop for a 20-point lead in the polls to a hung parliament, this is fantasy. Were I a conservative, tactically, surely one would want the baggage of the previous government to leave with Theresa May. Like John Major, a new, renewed leader, free from political accountability could guide the party to victory at the next election. Therefore surely, by remaining leader, Theresa May would leave Number 10 nearer to 2022, the baggage of her a.k.a the Conservative's failures, departing in the removal van. I fear for the future of this country. Britain is great, but economically and politically, times are uncertain. That is of course, the excellence of democracy. Nobody knows who is going to be in charge or what sting a free press will expose to the horrors of ministers. I just hope the Government and Tory parliamentary party decide to put the country's interests - i.e. a compromised version of Brexit – before their own interests of electoral power. For this, Theresa May must remain.
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