What a baffling, extraordinary, unexpected, shocking couple of days. A reality TV star, who launched his campaign as a publicity stunt, thinking it would be over within a few weeks, who has had no experience as a politician, and whose temperament and ability to run the country was seriously question, has been elected President of the United States of America. Donald Trump, the man whom, a few years ago, most would have associated with hotels, casinos, golf courses and lots of money, will be the leader of the 'Free World' for at least the next 4 years. Many, myself included, are worried and very concerned about this prospect, while many others delight at showing the establishment what they think and electing someone who is on their side. Allegedly. But how did Mr (soon to be President) Trump get here? And what challenges does he face in office?
Tuesday 8th November 2016: the day that, one way or another, would make history. For myself, I looked forward to going to bed early and waking up at 2:00am GMT to watch the results come through. I thought Trump would win, but hoped my prediction was wrong. As I switched on the TV, both candidates had a similar number of electoral college votes, with 15 states having declared. Everything so far looked fine, and I thought Hillary would pull through to victory, if only by a small margin. Things only started to get worrying when Trump took Ohio, a classic swing state that the Republicans hadn't won since 2004, an election the Republicans won. When Trump gained Florida, a state with a huge 29 Electoral college votes, while holding onto key Republican states, I knew the game was up. My suspicions were only confirmed just as I left for school that morning when Pennsylvania, previously Democrat under Obama, went to Trump. Truly depressing. In a US election, I never realized how useful voter demographics were. Presidential candidates couldn't win an election without appealing to certain types of voters, of which their campaign would be based around. Trump's campaign was appealed to left behind, white, working class people, of which 67% voted for Trump in 'most white' counties and 60% voted for him in 'more white' counties. Even in 'fewer white' counties, Trump still had a 9% lead. Among his main body of supporters, Trump overwhelmingly won. Hispanic voters were a key demographic, accounting for more than a fifth of voters in 4 swing states. In 2012, Obama attracted 71% of Hispanic voters, whereas Clinton received 6% less support of 65%. That could have been the difference between winning, or in this case, losing Florida. On the other hand, Trump managed to increase Hispanic votes for the Republicans from 27% in 2012 to 29%. Even in demographics Clinton was meant to win without a doubt, Trump made gains and inroads, that perhaps ultimately got him the Presidency. The system of electing President is both interesting and annoying (same could be said by some about Britain's 'First Past the Post' system - which I support). The Electoral College allows each state to have an equal say, in proportion to their population, about who is elected, which I think is fair and right. However, this does mean that the candidate that gets the popular vote may not be President. This happened in this election, though by a small margin of roughly 200,000. Clinton may have gained many more votes due to strong support in California, New York, New Jersey and other safe Democrat states with lots of eligible supporters, but lost out by a fraction in marginal Florida and other central states, therefore making her lose the Electoral College. Apart from Maine and Nebraska, which splits Electoral votes into districts, popular vote doesn't matter in the state. Winner simply takes all, whether they win 52 or 92 percent. There were some rather odd and bizarre results in the election, which like in the UK when the 'Monster Raving Loony Party' stands, are quite amusing. 11,000 voters across the country wrote the word 'Harambe' as their choice for candidate, referencing the gorilla killed at Cincinnati Zoo earlier this year. Many 3rd party candidates ran, most prominently the Libertarian and Green parties, which split the vote between the 2 candidates and allowed those who felt disillusioned with the main choice to vote elsewhere. Notably, turnout for the election was 56.6%, up 1.7% from 2012, but still so low compared many other developed nations. In the UK, turnout has only fallen below 60% once since 1918 in a general election. Perhaps many Americans, whoever the candidates, do not wish, or want, to take part in the democratic system. So, what will a Trump Presidency look like? So far, it's unclear. Given both the Senate and House of Representatives are heavily Republican, Trump may be able to get lots of his legislation through. However, proper Republican conservatives, who think some of Trump's ideas aren't particularity 'conservative', may block or challenge what he offers, in order to achieve as much a Republican presidency as possible. Democrats in both parts of Congress will try and filibuster many bills, I'm sure, which though allowed and part of democratic constitution, is often frowned upon. In his victory speech, Trump promised to be a ''President for all Americans'' and ''rebuild our nation''. While these phrases sound desirable, how they will be acted upon remains to be seen. America, like the UK, appears so divided in terms of ideology and direction. Since the 2008 crash, many feel so left behind and forgotten. Economically, Trump wants to cut business tax to 15% from the 30-ish% it has been before to stimulate growth. Whether this growth will occur, and if so, everyone feels it, remains to be seen. Trump plans to ''fix the inner city and rebuild our tunnels, highways, bridges, schools and hospitals'' and develop infrastructure. While in theory, this sounds like a good plan, where the money will come from is unknown, especially if taxes are being cut. On foreign affairs, I predict Mr Trump and Mr Putin will get on well as allies. Whether this is a relief or terrifying, I don't know, but hope both can work constructively together, in a way to try and benefit everyone, particularly in defeating IS, through a political strategy. Trump's long term relationships with other countries look weak, given his support for isolationism and potentially not helping a NATO Allie if needed. The future for America hangs in the balance. Will it remain a world leader, inspiring developing countries to grow and leading democratic rights? Or America decline in importance, respect and mutual tolerance following a closed doors policy and not being there to lead? Let us hope Donald Trump chooses the former.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
Author:Noah enjoys writing a blog and drinking tea Archives
September 2022
Categories
All
|