I don't officially have to call Boris Johnson the Prime Minister until tomorrow. Then, he will visit the Queen, form a government and decide who he wants within his top team. Around Westminster, predictions are being made about which cabinet minsters will have their red boxes and ministerial cars taken away, who will return to Downing Street and what lucky person will become minister for paperclips. Within the Cabinet, it will be fascinating to see the Remainer/Leave split. Given Boris managed to attract support from both wings of the party, I will be curious to see whether this is reflected in the ministerial positions.
But that is all for tomorrow. For now, Boris is just leader of the Conservative Party. That is bad enough. It is staggering that someone so incompetent and inept has managed to reach the highest office. As London Mayor, he repeatedly had little eye for detail, instead coming up with vanity schemes that have since been abolished (remember the Garden Bridge anyone?). When in the Foreign Office, diplomatic error after diplomatic error was the norm, as gaffes were made in an attempt to make people laugh. This wasn't enough to stop Boris, however. Indeed, his willingness to make people laugh, smile, feel good around him, has no sign of stopping. In his acceptance of the leadership, he referenced the acronym 'DUD' which turned into 'DUDE.' His speech was mediocre at best, a blustering manner so far from the statesmanlike dignity the UK deserves in its Prime Ministers. For MPs and commentators touring the media cameras, there is a sense of euphoria, disbelief and wonder that Mr Johnson is here. People may like his more authentic personality, apparently more in touch with the people. Boris cannot maintain this. Once he enters office tomorrow, his pledges will begin to meet reality. First, he states his wish to 'deliver Brexit.' Initially, this will be done through trying to remove the backstop and find alternative arrangements. Mr Johnson is likely, at best, to find this challenging. Whether the EU will really make some concessions if they believe the UK would be willing to depart without a deal, who knows? Presumably, individuals on both sides have been looking for an alternative to the backstop for a considerable period of time and found nothing. If a deal without the backstop cannot be struck, all sides are likely to be irritated. Nevertheless, Johnson has then pledged to exit without a deal. That would disappoint the remainer colleagues who backed him with the hope of getting a renegotiated deal. It will be interesting to see whether this scares Parliament into voting for a deal, any deal, to avoid the chaos that no deal would bring. The legislature may try to find other ways to prevent Mr Johnson leaving the European Union without a deal, like taking over the order paper, forming an alternative plan or even calling a vote of no confidence. A general election seems on the horizon. If forced by a vote of confidence, or Mr Johnson himself if wishing to avoid the humiliation, that brings us to his next pledge: defeat Corbyn. Certainly the Conservatives will get a boost in the polls; new Prime Ministers always get a short honeymoon period. Whether this translates into election success, I wouldn't be so sure. While he was able to twice win London, Boris is now so associated with the fight to leave the EU that cosmopolitan areas cannot stand him. Yet wherever he goes, people want to see him, take selfies, have a conversation. That doesn't necessarily mean they will vote for him. I may want to see Nigel Farage if he visited Cambridge, but on no planet would I ever put my 'X' in the Brexit Party box. Just because one attracts members of the public, and attention in general, doesn't mean they will be returned to government. Combine this with a growing remainer force, nine years of austerity and a sense the Conservatives are a tired party and all is to play for! Finally, Boris pledges to unite the country. This is frankly impossible whoever is the Prime Minister, despite being promised by every new Prime Minister. Margaret Thatcher was always able to command the confidence of Parliament yet always had sections of the population that loathed her. Tony Blair won three elections even when Tory heartlands would never vote for him. To unite behind a leader is impossible. Even Boris Johnson's father Stanley admits it would never happen. Uniting the country has become even harder because of Brexit. It has opened up the fundamental ideological divisions in how people see themselves: social conservative 'somewheres' or socially liberal 'anywheres', metropolitan v rural, old v young. Brexit has ripped the country in half and, as the process has developed, made people more polarized. As Boris is so connected with one side of that divide (despite being a social liberal on many policy areas), and is willing to leave with no deal, unity will be impossible. As a comedian or media star, it is easy to make people laugh and have them on your side. You can moan about the state of the world, tell jokes without ever being held accountable to implement policies. This has served Boris well, even when he was London Mayor, managing to surprisingly win re-election in 2012. But as Prime Minister, governing for the whole country, Mr Johnson is going to have to get used to individuals being irritated, repulsed and in contempt towards him and his government. To govern is to choose, once said Nigel Lawson. Mr Johnson will need to choose who he will please and who he will disappoint.
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