At the dawn of the new year, as fireworks go off around the world, there is always a desire for change and renewal. Usually, this means wishing for a calmer, less hectic year. Ideally, more time would be spent relaxing and less worrying about the stresses of daily life. Nevertheless, hoping for some form of vigour, renewal and change, simply because the calendar has changed year, inevitably arises from this annual celebration.
These things never take place. I'm sorry, but daily life gets in the way. January 1st is reached and whoosh…another busy year awaits. There is anything but a change in lifestyle. This absence of difference and evolution, the general conservatism of life (if you pardon the pun) can be applied to our current political situation regarding, you’ve guessed it, Brexit. In the words of Theresa May herself, nothing has changed. All the Christmas recess has done is delay the meaningful vote on her Withdrawal Agreement. This has to take place. MPs must vote on her deal at some point. While our elected representatives will have had time to take a deep breath, considering their thoughts with respective constituency parties, the most important factor of the vote, the arithmetic, appears to have hardly altered. Most Brexiteer Tory MPs are fundamentally opposed to the Withdrawal Agreement because of the Irish backstop. This leaves the UK in a customs union with the EU after December 2020, as no future trade deal will have been agreed in less than two years. Either side would only be able to withdraw by seeking the approval of the independent arbitration committee, a panel of five individuals (two from the UK, two EU and one mysterious independent figure). Fearing this would leave Britain as a vassal state, there is no logical option to them but to vote again the deal. Of course, they will have talked to members of the public and their own associations. Indeed, the associations may back the Prime Minister’s deal, urging their MP to support it. But remember, many of these Brexiteers, including Bill Cash and John Redwood, have spent decades campaigning against the European project. Their minds will hardly be changed by the pleas of local members. Some MPs may be willing to be deselected if it meant Mrs May’s deal fell, their overwhelming passion of opposing the EU overriding any future political career. Even the most conservative estimate of Brexit rebels is over 50, that number having pledged to Stand Up for Brexit on twitter. This far exceeds the notional government majority of seven when the DUP are taken into account. The deal would therefore fall, explaining why the vote was delayed on December 11th. Even if the number of rebels was halved to 25, or even 12, this would still be enough for the government to fail. Strangely, this would have been an acceptable scale of defeat had the vote taken place on its original date. The Prime Minister could have gone back to the EU, shown she was near to victory, had done her best to get the deal through the Commons, but needed a few more reassurances to pass the deals. Perhaps this may have led to greater EU concessions, we will never know. By not holding the vote, Mrs May had no tangible, numerical evidence that the vote wouldn’t past. Logically, the EU were then far less likely to budge. Were the vote to be defeated in January by any amount, absolute chaos would ensue. Do not forget, we have less than 100 days until we depart. An extension to Article 50 would be inevitable, something that wouldn’t go down well with Brexiteers. Yet since Mrs May won her leadership challenge, granting her another 12 months in office, a more conciliatory tone between the government and ERG (European Research Group) has formed. On the surface, this looks pleasing. Two apparently irreconcilable wings of the same party are trying to negotiate with one another. But in reality, it is the equivalent of WW1 soldiers allegedly playing football on Christmas Day. The chasm of competing visions is so huge that multiple Tories have appeared on the same programme, as though from different parties. For example, Nicky Morgan and David Davis were both on David Dimbleby’s last Question Time with Andrew Bridgen and James Cleverly refusing to debate on Victoria Derbyshire springing to mind. As I have stated multiple times, these internal divisions would be fine, were they not plunging the entire country down the cliffs of Dover as well. The DUP may only have 10 MPs, but they have proven to be a formidable force. They are holding this administration alive, managing to grasp over £1 billion for their support on votes of no confidence and finance bills. When they join opposition parties and vote against the government, it has been proven to have consequences, like when the government were found in contempt of Parliament. Nevertheless, it is fascinating how the other main Northern Irish parties support Theresa May’s deal, despite being far to the DUP’s left politically. As Sinn Fein do not take their parliamentary seats, the DUP have managed to become Northern Ireland’s voice. Despite disagreeing with them on probably every social issue, I cannot deny their clout as a grouping. They are currently set to vote against the deal, viewing Northern Ireland’s differing regulations to the rest of the United Kingdom as an unacceptable border down the Irish Sea. As a unionist, this also happens to be my personal opposition to the deal. However, they would still support the government in a vote of no confidence if the deal falls. For Theresa May, that is one solemn light in an otherwise pitch black tunnel. For votes, the crucial decision makers are the Labour Party. With over 250 MPs, the distribution of their votes is vital for whether the deal passes. Currently, MPs look set to be whipped to vote against the deal, as it doesn’t met Labour’s six tests. (Whether those tests could ever be met is another question altogether.) Even MPs who were deemed to be wavering on backing the deal like Lisa Nandy and Ruth Smeeth have ruled out their support, making it increasingly difficult to see where votes are gathered from. While Mrs May tries to present the situation as her deal vs no deal (the latter perfectly satisfying most Brexiteers), Labour suggest there is an alternative, third way. I find it unclear to see who is correct. Even if MPs could unite against a no deal Brexit, this is no enough. They would need to unite behind an alternative vision, as stated by the New Statesman’s Patrick Maguire. But could there be unity behind, say, a Norway style deal? Would such a vote be binding on the government? Even if it were, would the EU agree to it? This complete lack of certainty surrounding the third way benefits the government. They must assume that, when push comes to shove, enough backbench Labour MPs would rather vote for the government’s deal than face this uncertainty, even if it meant the end of their political careers. The saddest thing is realizing what this parliamentary examination and energy could have been instead devoted to. Think of all the pressing domestic and foreign issues that require the government’s attention. Instead, the fuss has been devoted to making trade with our nearest trading partners trickier. When you take a step back, it is bizarre. The government may make the occasional speech on housing or health, but no issue comes anywhere near Brexit. All the attention is focused on what happens next. If the deal falls, it is impossible to see how Theresa May goes on. Yet there are some more lights shining on her Brexit tunnel. Remainer Tory MPs like Ken Clarke, the most Europhile MP in perhaps the whole House of Commons, and Nicky Morgan have stated they will vote for the deal. So too will former Liberal Democrat MP Stephen Lloyd, his willingness to vote for whatever deal Mrs May retrieved so strong that his Lib Dem whip was resigned, reducing their parliamentary party by 8.25%. With this support coming from the most unexpected of places, the Prime Minister may believe the deal can just about be passed, allowing her premiership to go on and on up to the next election. However, in the unlikely scenario the deal gets through, the DUP will end the confidence and supply agreement, viewing the Withdrawal Agreement as a bigger threat to the union than Jeremy Corbyn. A general election, forced by a vote of no confidence, could then be inevitable. But talk of the potential imminence of her departure is coming from loyal, surprising voices. Former policy adviser George Freeman stated her departure should take place soon after March 2019, Mrs May unable to command gravitas to negotiate the future agreement. In mid-June 2019, I plan to watch PMQs from the public gallery. I have a funny feeling that at least one of the two main duellers (Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition) may have changed by the time of my visit.
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